Annie Duke Decision Quality Audit

Evaluate choices by separating process quality from luck using Annie Duke's decision quality audit method.

4 time blocks, 40 minutes in total.

Time blocks

Isolate Decision and Outcome: 10 min
Record the specific choice made and the resulting outcome clearly
Reconstruct Prior Knowledge: 10 min
List facts, unknowns, and assumptions present at decision time
Evaluate Probabilities and Evidence: 10 min
Review original probability estimates and evidence strength
Separate Skill from Luck: 10 min
Identify resulting bias and record process improvements

About this routine

Evaluating past decisions purely by their outcomes leads to resulting bias, where a good outcome is mistaken for a smart choice or a bad outcome is blamed on poor judgment. Annie Duke's decision quality audit addresses this by inspecting the decision making process itself, completely independent of how things turned out.

By reconstructing what was known, unknown, and assumed at the exact moment a choice was made, you can objectively judge your reasoning. This audit helps calibrate confidence levels, track explicit probabilities, and spot blind spots without the distortion of hindsight.

Running this review systematically after key projects or major strategic choices strengthens future judgment. It allows teams and individuals to learn from bad luck without abandoning good strategies, and to catch bad processes before good luck runs out.

Why this routine works

Eliminates resulting bias by separating luck from decision skill
Calibrates future confidence using explicit probability tracking
Identifies blind spots and missing information in past choices
Creates repeatable frameworks for high stakes strategic decisions

FAQ

What is Annie Duke's decision quality audit?

It is a structured method to evaluate choices based on information quality and process rather than the final outcome.

What is resulting bias in decision making?

Resulting bias is the tendency to equate a good outcome with a good decision, or a bad outcome with a bad decision.

How long does a decision audit take?

A standard decision audit takes 40 minutes, spending 10 minutes on each stage of process deconstruction.

Sources

Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
How to Decide by Annie Duke