Gary Klein Premortem Contingency Planning

A structured 45 minute team exercise to uncover prospective project risks by imagining a complete failure before launch.

5 time blocks, 45 minutes in total.

Time blocks

Set the Failure Premise: 5 min
Set the premise that the project failed completely
Silent Risk Generation: 5 min
Write all failure causes silently for five minutes
Round-Robin Item Sharing: 10 min
Read one item per person around the room without debate
Consolidate and Rank Risks: 10 min
Cluster common causes and vote on top risk areas
Develop Preventative Measures: 15 min
Assign owners and mitigation steps for key risks

About this routine

A Gary Klein project premortem flips traditional risk management on its head. Standard reviews ask teams what might go wrong, which often leads to quiet hesitation and filtered feedback. Klein discovered that asking people to imagine a project has already failed breaks psychological resistance and encourages open reporting.

The exercise opens with a simple scenario: the project has launched and turned out to be an absolute disaster. Everyone takes five minutes in silence to list every reason why that happened. Uncovering these prospective reasons early gives team members permission to voice concerns they would otherwise suppress.

During the final phase, the team consolidates the shared list, identifies critical vulnerabilities, and assigns preventative actions. Running this 45 minute session before major initiatives reduces blind spots and turns prospective hindsight into actionable project protections.

Why this routine works

Breaks groupthink and overconfidence before major launches
Encourages team members to voice hidden concerns safely
Identifies overlooked project risks before spending capital
Creates direct mitigation steps for high priority vulnerabilities

FAQ

What is a Gary Klein project premortem?

A Gary Klein project premortem is a decision making exercise where a team assumes a project has failed before it starts, then works backward to identify the potential causes.

How long does a project premortem take?

A standard project premortem takes 45 minutes, covering context setup, silent brainstorming, item sharing, risk ranking, and mitigation planning.

Why is a premortem better than a postmortem?

A postmortem analyzes mistakes after damage occurs, whereas a premortem identifies vulnerabilities early enough to prevent failure.

Sources

Performing a Project Premortem, Harvard Business Review (Gary Klein)
Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions (Gary Klein)