Peter Schwartz Scenario Matrix Mapping

Map future uncertainties using Peter Schwartz scenario planning principles. Frame critical decisions, isolate key drivers, construct a matrix, and chart early signposts.

6 time blocks, 60 minutes in total.

Time blocks

Focal Decision Pinpoint: 10 min
Define the exact decision or timeframe you need to plan around
Driving Forces Sweep: 10 min
List macro trends across technology, regulation, and economics
Uncertainty Ranking: 10 min
Sort driving forces by strategic impact and level of uncertainty
Axis Selection and Matrix Framing: 10 min
Pick two key uncertain forces to form a four-quadrant grid
Narrative Development: 10 min
Draft plausible storylines for each of the four future scenarios
Implications and Signposts Audit: 10 min
Identify actions for each outcome and key signals to track

About this routine

Peter Schwartz scenario planning was developed at the Global Business Network to help organizations navigate uncertain futures. Rather than attempting to predict a single outcome, this methodology builds four plausible future environments by crossing two critical uncertainties.

The process begins by clarifying a core decision, such as expanding a product line or shifting market strategy. You then gather macro environmental forces, sort them by predictability, and select the two most impactful uncertainties to create a two by two matrix.

By fleshing out narratives for each quadrant, teams stress test strategy against diverse conditions. The session concludes by establishing early indicator signposts, ensuring you notice market shifts before competitors do.

Why this routine works

Clarifies strategic decision making under high uncertainty
Prevents blind spots by exploring four distinct future worlds
Identifies early warning signposts to guide proactive pivots

FAQ

What is Peter Schwartz's scenario planning method?

Developed at the Global Business Network, it builds a two by two matrix from two critical uncertainties to generate four plausible future scenarios for decision making.

How does GBN scenario mapping differ from a pre-mortem?

A pre-mortem assumes a single plan has failed and looks backward for reasons. Scenario mapping explores multiple different macro environments to test choices across several futures.

How long does a scenario mapping session take?

A focused individual or small team mapping sprint takes 60 minutes, allocating 10 minutes to each of the six structural steps.

Sources

The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz
Global Business Network Scenario Planning Process, ScenarioThinking Primer

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